What Coinbase is claiming
In the weekly note From Hack to Hawk, strategist Colin Basco says the Binance breach is an easy explanation for the selloff but that trading during the week was, in Coinbase's assessment, more closely tied to the Fed outlook. The note does not establish that the breach had no effect on sentiment. It compares Bitcoin's move with macro releases and other market indicators.
That is a different question from whether BTC/USDT traded below 68,000 on Binance on November 13. A quote establishes the price for one pair at a particular time. Coinbase is offering a broader explanation for the decline, but coincident charts cannot quantify precisely how much was driven by rates, the hack, liquidations or other news.
Jobs and inflation shifted rate expectations
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 165,000 additional nonfarm payroll jobs in October and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. October consumer prices rose 0.4% on the month, while the measure excluding food and energy rose 0.3%. Coinbase says both releases exceeded market consensus and considers the inflation reading particularly important to the subsequent pressure on Bitcoin.
The Coinbase note says rate futures priced a December increase and about 64 basis points of increases over the following 12 months, versus 37 basis points earlier in November. Futures-implied pricing reflects traders' expectations, not an actual decision by the Federal Open Market Committee. Those probabilities change as contracts trade; the Fed has not announced the projected future moves as settled policy.
Crypto-market liquidity weakened as well
Coinbase estimates that the combined supply of the USDT, USDC and DAI stablecoins it tracks fell by $11.5 billion over 30 days. A smaller stablecoin supply may indicate less settlement capital available within crypto markets. It does not, on its own, reveal how much money was withdrawn specifically from Bitcoin buying. Transfers among exchanges, banks and other assets require a separate analysis.
The note also reports $1.44 billion in net outflows from US spot BTC ETFs over the five trading sessions through November 11. Farside Investors' daily flow table gives approximately the same total for those dates. Net flows measure fund-share creations and redemptions; they are not equivalent to every holder immediately selling the same dollar value of BTC, nor do they guarantee another price decline.
How to read the note after another price move
When the Coinbase commentary was prepared, it treated the $66,000-$68,000 range as a possible next support area if Bitcoin stayed below $73,000. An exchange quote had already crossed below 68,000 by November 13. The earlier conditional scenario should therefore not be presented as a fresh prediction after that crossing. Analysis levels describe the market as observed at the time, not a required path for BTC.
The useful distinction is between observations and the analyst's judgment. BLS figures and ETF flows are published data, the stablecoin-supply calculation is Coinbase's estimate, and its ranking of possible causes remains an interpretation. None of those measures alone identifies the price available for the next trade or provides a buy-or-sell signal.
